Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd35fbd24db5fa98f21002663a2e5fb7a99b912f0e01849078c9f7d3ec00d84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,414$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 517.21$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 461.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 69c | 389$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 40c | 355.45$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 45c | 319.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.52 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 20c | 199.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 194.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 36c | 143.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 134$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 101.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 72c | 97.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 96.4$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 76.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 64c | 75.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 79c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 72.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 66.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 67c | 63.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 61.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 61.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 27c | 58.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…4633backed No | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefc6…dde3backed No | 61c | 58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 37c | 55.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 39c | 51.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 65c | 49.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 46.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 42c | 42.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0550…c7efbacked Yes | 44c | 39.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 57c | 37.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 36.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 34c | 34.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 59c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x982c…0d6ebacked Yes | 38c | 29.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 58c | 28.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 37c | 27.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd836…8811backed Yes | 40c | 26.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 72c | 21.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.