Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xada6b6175de4e3658f153cef1a160f7eebeb3c376fecf8e20b99f3d647ef0437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 1c | 2,713$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,964$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.69 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 33c | 1,799$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.6 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 1,293$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.52 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 46c | 392$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.68 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 71c | 343$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.77 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 54c | 177.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 69c | 103.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 69c | 103.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 69c | 103.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 69c | 103.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 69c | 103.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 69c | 103.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 69c | 103.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 69c | 103.21$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked No | 55c | 98.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 70c | 95.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 70c | 95.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 70c | 95.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.89 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked No | 65c | 90.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.74 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 70c | 70.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7333…ca16backed No | 15c | 68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 28c | 57.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 53.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 39c | 48.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 63c | 42.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed No | 46c | 41.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yes | 54c | 36.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Yes | 55c | 31.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e4…f926backed No | 48c | 28.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 58c | 19.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce1…a25dbacked Yes | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.