Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2538c4d7975f3bdbf20737430f7073e6f5c7ca8d82a30f32eff0ac31420d3d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 10,191$6,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,507.34 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 34c | 7,710$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.32 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Over | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 37c | 4,382$1,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,605.36 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed Over | 5c | 1,914$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.89 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +9.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 7c | 1,384$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 857.87$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.83 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Under | 59c | 826.61$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.91 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 33c | 639.91$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.17 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 17c | 569.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 37c | 524.51$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 70c | 404.65$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.12 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Under | 62c | 376.24$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 17c | 339.53$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…77d4backed Under | 65c | 294.1$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.93 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over | 22c | 263.4$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 37c | 263.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.19 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f3…1732backed Over | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 69c | 147.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 80c | 123.85$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 34c | 107.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 36c | 106.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 105.6$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Over | 24c | 95.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 69c | 92.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 69c | 92.82$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 77c | 87.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 68c | 85.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…40e2backed Over | 13c | 85.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 59.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked Under | 77c | 55.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…49e1backed Over | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9c…7b3fbacked Over | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed Under | 65c | 38.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91bb…ae27backed Under | 63c | 32.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 67c | 31.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Under | 67c | 31.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb3…78e9backed Under | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…78f7backed Under | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 63c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Under | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 57 | 68.4%39 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfea…8006backed Under | 69c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 66c | 16.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.