Bundesliga · resolved market

TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45ca442fd01125fbddf376179f10e900ccc5c43d84b6a8738ed735f2706a756c

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $96,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $132,207

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,173 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0c45…0ac6backed Over	60c	29,836$17,887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,949.63	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.25per pick	39cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	41c	23,001$9,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,366.08	481	41.8%201 W · 280 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d0…9b55backed Over	47c	4,531$2,150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,381.09	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Under	55c	3,565$1,945 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,945.49	43	51.2%22 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8c…dc9ebacked Under	71c	1,977$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.94	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.34per pick	63cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf95…905bbacked Over	60c	1,602$958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.32	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.40per pick	60cpaid	+67.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	50c	1,401$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.88	1,013	44.5%451 W · 562 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	46c	1,338$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.08	2,538	39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L	-8.1wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Under	1c	1,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	47	2.1%1 W · 46 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	45c	1,032$466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.07	1,355	50.9%690 W · 665 L	+12.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	41c	1,028$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.46	1,681	45.2%759 W · 922 L	+6.8wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over	17c	882.6$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$728.28	446	55.4%247 W · 199 L	+22.4wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over	59c	831.73$488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.14	187	59.4%111 W · 76 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46e6…d4cdbacked Under	80c	760.62$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.1	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-3.0wins	-0.25per pick	59cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	63c	634.46$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.23	640	43.9%281 W · 359 L	-9.7wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under	76c	587.51$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.58	1,305	40.8%532 W · 773 L	-42.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over	17c	503.99$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.31	124	60.5%75 W · 49 L	+19.9wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+46.3%equal weight	65+0.13 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	54c	492.3$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.51	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa54d…deb8backed Over	43c	464.99$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.05	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-7.1wins	-0.26per pick	56cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Under	46c	372.09$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.53	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	-3.8wins	-0.23per pick	58cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1df5…1e18backed Over	17c	368.9$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.19	76	57.9%44 W · 32 L	+7.6wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	31c	345.34$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$236.66	222	21.6%48 W · 174 L	-34.2wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over	58c	334.12$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.12	189	58.2%110 W · 79 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	62cpaid	-2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over	31c	310.62$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$214.33	61	34.4%21 W · 40 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-18%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under	41c	247.6$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.33	1,083	50.8%550 W · 533 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…77d4backed Under	42c	241.3$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.35	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Under	55c	229.98$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.49	33	60.6%20 W · 13 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	59cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc514…e9b4backed Over	43c	212.8$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.3	107	28%30 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over	55c	211.74$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.93	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	44c	211.51$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.65	817	32.8%268 W · 549 L	-11.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc32…00bfbacked Over	50c	207.58$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.79	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Over	21c	204.13$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$161.26	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over	65c	176.03$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.91	160	60.6%97 W · 63 L	+9.1wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef9c…7b3fbacked Over	46c	152.55$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.52	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+23%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under	40c	141.25$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.89	550	58.7%323 W · 227 L	+23.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	481	46.4%223 W · 258 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	636	45.1%287 W · 349 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	40c	125$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	496	47.4%235 W · 261 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a42…2a7ebacked Over	31c	114.68$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.17	45	42.2%19 W · 26 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2c…e2d0backed Under	51c	111.62$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Under	33c	111$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.63	65	32.3%21 W · 44 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over	48c	108.99$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.67	142	60.6%86 W · 56 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Under	59c	102.01$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.55	213	55.4%118 W · 95 L	+8.1wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	59c	102.01$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.55	185	54.1%100 W · 85 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	59c	102.01$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.55	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	-8.0wins	-0.09per pick	57cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	59c	102.01$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.55	208	45.7%95 W · 113 L	-16.2wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under	59c	102.01$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.55	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	58cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	237	45.6%108 W · 129 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	37c	96.22$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.62	388	45.6%177 W · 211 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a98…9b27backed Over	51c	95.15$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.62	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under	58c	94.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.93	177	49.7%88 W · 89 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under	58c	94.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.93	178	52.8%94 W · 84 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Under	58c	94.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.93	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Under	58c	94.71$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.93	47	44.7%21 W · 26 L	-5.9wins	-0.13per pick	57cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c23…261ebacked Under	57c	94.52$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.23	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	62cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…0263backed Over	54c	89.86$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.33	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under	58c	84.03$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.74	150	48%72 W · 78 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9637…a576backed Over	58c	84.03$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.29	116	35.3%41 W · 75 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under	58c	84.03$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.74	123	46.3%57 W · 66 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under	58c	84.03$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.74	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over	17c	75.63$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.77	164	64%105 W · 59 L	+28.5wins	+0.17per pick	47cpaid	+49.2%equal weight	67+0.15 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Under	65c	75.31$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.95	90	67.8%61 W · 29 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	63cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Under	58c	72.27$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.92	105	32.4%34 W · 71 L	-8.6wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	17c	71.46$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.31	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+13.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over	21c	68.04$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.75	221	57%126 W · 95 L	+10.6wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked Under	62c	63.05$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.09	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.23per pick	50cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under	58c	61.21$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	73	49.3%36 W · 37 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1e…522fbacked Under	40c	55.82$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d30…077dbacked Over	55c	54.8$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.57	41	43.9%18 W · 23 L	-3.7wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x550d…f1ffbacked Under	73c	52.56$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.37	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	67cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1792…118abacked Over	30c	50.05$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.03	108	65.7%71 W · 37 L	+8.5wins	+0.08per pick	58cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Under	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	13cpaid	-85.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Under	70c	49.1$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.37	77	50.6%39 W · 38 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Under	59c	48.25$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	111	48.6%54 W · 57 L	-5.4wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	59c	48.25$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	186	44.1%82 W · 104 L	-10.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under	59c	48.25$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.64	205	48.3%99 W · 106 L	-10.0wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f6…7bd7backed Over	50c	42.68$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.34	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+2.1wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07f5…d680backed Under	72c	39.75$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.62	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	60cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b56…9100backed Under	49c	39.57$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	20	45%9 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x297e…612fbacked Under	57c	34.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.68per pick	68cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3d…b56cbacked Over	58c	33.61$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.12	44	56.8%25 W · 19 L	+5.4wins	+0.12per pick	45cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6769…f8b9backed Over	58c	33.61$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.12	22	77.3%17 W · 5 L	+4.7wins	+0.21per pick	56cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaabd…54fcbacked Over	58c	33.51$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.08	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	60cpaid	+38.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e63…2d79backed Under	71c	27.68$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.65	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Over	59c	22.43$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.2	53	64.2%34 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5this page
Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5Over won
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Under won
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event