Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a440be7daec3ff3dd0fb21674eb2c364cbea2e62d50a0a3f2f30889ac0d3036
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,446
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,446 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6d0…9b55backed Over | 71c | 6,213$4,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,802.13 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 29c | 3,092$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.69 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 34c | 1,731$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.15 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 39c | 1,145$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.65 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…dc9ebacked Under | 41c | 930.41$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…0175backed Under | 2c | 575$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 506.5$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…7b16backed Over | 48c | 484.4$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…261ebacked Under | 29c | 451.95$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 65c | 369.64$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.77 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…0263backed Over | 48c | 347.93$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 339.3$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 66c | 244.9$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 47c | 206.54$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 67c | 167.49$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 41c | 141.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 63c | 116.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Under | 37c | 105.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 66c | 97.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 23c | 71.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 29c | 66.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 54.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 31c | 49.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 29c | 46.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 76c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Over | 66c | 37.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…b4d4backed Under | 54c | 36.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 35c | 30.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 35c | 30.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 48c | 30.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Over | 67c | 24.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.