Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae1458dfe0e23cd6d9a3945ee0d788c7be331f888b0dfa8eacafb6280fee34a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoya Hondaof Naoya Honda, Alan Magadan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Naoya Honda | 35c | 6,429$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,171.93 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Naoya Honda | 19c | 3,665$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.57 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Alan Magadan | 62c | 2,997$1,867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.03 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Alan Magadan | 16c | 2,287$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.07 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Naoya Honda | 58c | 1,535$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.92 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70bc…4e16backed Naoya Honda | 29c | 858.01$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.01 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Naoya Honda | 67c | 624.98$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.55 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Naoya Honda | 68c | 617.85$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.24 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Alan Magadan | 60c | 501.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Naoya Honda | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.9 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Naoya Honda | 70c | 439.9$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.4 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Alan Magadan | 57c | 411$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.97 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2f…9123backed Naoya Honda | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 316 | 56.3%178 W · 138 L | +19.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf006…bb6cbacked Naoya Honda | 46c | 289.94$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.18 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Naoya Honda | 76c | 264.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Alan Magadan | 26c | 206.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Naoya Honda | 42c | 195.36$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.31 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Naoya Honda | 43c | 186.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.15 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd2…868fbacked Alan Magadan | 55c | 176.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Alan Magadan | 17c | 174.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Alan Magadan | 61c | 163.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Alan Magadan | 33c | 137.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked Alan Magadan | 55c | 111.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 525 | 57%299 W · 226 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Naoya Honda | 59c | 109.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Alan Magadan | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Naoya Honda | 38c | 99.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.65 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Naoya Honda | 41c | 84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Naoya Honda | 47c | 69.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.04 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Naoya Honda | 52c | 69.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Naoya Honda | 32c | 64.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Naoya Honda | 36c | 63.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 743 | 46.3%344 W · 399 L | -28.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Alan Magadan | 65c | 63.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Naoya Honda | 42c | 62.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 255 | 50.6%129 W · 126 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb4…da3cbacked Alan Magadan | 69c | 57.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Alan Magadan | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Alan Magadan | 77c | 49.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Alan Magadan | 78c | 46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 45 | 73.3%33 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf504…0111backed Naoya Honda | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 1,102 | 56.5%623 W · 479 L | +52.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Naoya Honda | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Naoya Honda | 37c | 44.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alan Magadan | 55c | 41.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…c2d0backed Alan Magadan | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 62.1%77 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…a82fbacked Alan Magadan | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Alan Magadan | 57c | 31.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78de…86bebacked Alan Magadan | 74c | 30.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…3a77backed Alan Magadan | 55c | 30.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Naoya Honda | 60c | 29.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Alan Magadan | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Naoya Honda | 54c | 27.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Alan Magadan | 75c | 25.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 391 | 61.4%240 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Alan Magadan | 45c | 24.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | -32.4wins | -0.21per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Alan Magadan | 63c | 24.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…e16bbacked Naoya Honda | 59c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…53d0backed Alan Magadan | 55c | 18.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.