Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae37932bda381f137b2ac9cf665763f6f0f05ca52f2589448a3875e1d7138d8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 297.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 11c | 180.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 178.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 173.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 72c | 152.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 132.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 21c | 117.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 116.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 113.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 66c | 112.37$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 22c | 93.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 92.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 15c | 79.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 20c | 69.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 60.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde08…b228backed No | 71c | 55.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 52.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 30c | 52.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 24c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…8089backed Yes | 35c | 48.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 76c | 47.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 33c | 43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 65c | 40.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 68c | 40.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 28c | 38.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 71c | 25.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 75c | 21.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 73c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 68c | 17.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 75c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.