Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb76c653ee9b4693f16f2369bdb64beaf4a937dab9afe24ac818a23c9160610c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 17c | 494.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 50c | 249.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 209.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 193.54$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 180.66$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 51c | 165.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.48 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 160.42$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 18c | 154.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked No | 62c | 154.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 152.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.78 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 49c | 144.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2918…e907backed No | 76c | 128.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 125.46$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 124.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 121.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 43c | 120.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 61c | 118.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 96.19$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 43c | 83.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f0…0b02backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 57c | 77.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 77.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 69c | 71.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 21c | 68.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 69 | 11.6%8 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 39c | 67.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 50c | 62.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 39c | 60.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 64c | 60.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 59.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 66c | 58.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 57.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 55.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 44c | 55.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 34c | 54.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 36c | 53.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 46c | 48.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 47.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 38c | 46.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 46.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 45.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 35c | 43.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 53c | 41.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 40.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 41c | 38.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfe…f6e9backed Yes | 27c | 38.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 59cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 37c | 37.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 51c | 37.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 33c | 37.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…ce76backed Yes | 46c | 36.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 50c | 36.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 52c | 36.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 54c | 35.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…4f55backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 62c | 30.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes | 64c | 30.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 54c | 29.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 66c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked No | 63c | 28.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 51c | 28.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…416fbacked No | 70c | 27.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 26.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes | 39c | 26.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 25.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 44c | 25.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2497…b420backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 45c | 24.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 51c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 43c | 23.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 46c | 23.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…1bcebacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 57c | 22.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 64c | 22.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 65c | 21.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 55c | 19.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.