TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,908

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ab0…9578backed Yes17c494.7$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.14032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes15c299.99$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.21,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd721…d52dbacked No50c249.99$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.991650%8 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c209.9$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes45c193.54$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.235,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No65c180.66$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.622,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No51c165.84$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.4811925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No67c160.42$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.631,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes18c154.62$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5331062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xe90e…107abacked No62c154.14$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes37c152.27$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.781,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes49c144.14$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2918…e907backed No76c128.53$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.99560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No60c125.46$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6163656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No52c124.89$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No72c121.96$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5157038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes43c120.88$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No61c118.39$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6186173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes36c96.19$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.167,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.951,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No43c83.54$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.7276924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f0…0b02backed Yes50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked Yes57c77.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.083946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No38c77.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.38,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes36c75$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.163538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes69c71.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6425839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes21c68.19$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.166911.6%8 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick12cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes39c67.06$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1426566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes50c62.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.365129.4%15 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes39c60.81$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4822934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes64c60.05$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5717643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c59.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.687,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes66c58.7$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6313042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes39c57.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c55.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.993,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b7…148cbacked Yes44c55.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.319331.2%29 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab14…e786backed Yes34c54.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4911243.8%49 W · 63 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes36c53.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.245228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes23c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.523738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c49.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.992,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes46c48.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.151,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c47.61$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6283360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes38c46.9$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8226738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No65c46.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1770770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c45.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes38c44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7225042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes35c43.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1211341.6%47 W · 66 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+20.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16cf…e3babacked Yes53c41.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.993633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No64c40.09$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.242,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes41c38.58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7556048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedfe…f6e9backed Yes27c38.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick59cpaid-77.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef2e…10c3backed Yes37c37.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7840242.5%171 W · 231 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82cf…b944backed Yes51c37.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.022035%7 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d22…245cbacked Yes33c37.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.386026.7%16 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b43…ce76backed Yes46c36.88$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.961145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1294…cd72backed No50c36.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.267266.7%48 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d86…9671backed Yes52c36.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.866833.8%23 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No54c35.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2534057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ea…4f55backed No73c32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No62c30.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.684070%28 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c54…ae3fbacked Yes64c30.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.271947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No54c29.91$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7628737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes50c29.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.76959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe57d…043abacked No52c29.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.988746%40 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No66c28.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x097c…630abacked No63c28.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.532055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes51c28.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.671,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02e4…416fbacked No70c27.83$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.442433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No71c26.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.699,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a3c…1b6fbacked Yes39c26.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.259235.9%33 W · 59 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No66c25.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7881756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes44c25.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2711644%51 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2497…b420backed No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe508…5885backed Yes45c24.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.147939.2%31 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes51c24.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes43c23.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2817138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…9bedbacked Yes46c23.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.886946.4%32 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26dd…1bcebacked No73c23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.217100%7 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+93.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaba1…ac85backed No57c22.87$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8411259.8%67 W · 45 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes64c22.48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f2…8623backed No65c21.48$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.483464.7%22 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes55c19.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.566753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.