Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd19f861c46be3d8380cdef1ff49ff60dd384e3d84e979c125bd11a7b702768f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb990…947cbacked No | 3c | 784.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 31c | 686.7$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$476.16 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 73c | 316.07$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.72 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…8cdebacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 47c | 242.8$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 234.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.74 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 53c | 195.9$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 21c | 191.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.13 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 22c | 188.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.33 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 167.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 19c | 152.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 150.65$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 21c | 141.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.74 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 25c | 129.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 34c | 126.46$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 74c | 123.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 30c | 123.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 46c | 121.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 119.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 58c | 119.17$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…b944backed Yes | 20c | 116.62$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 113.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 106.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 79c | 100.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 64c | 96.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 95.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 27c | 92.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 40c | 91.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 26c | 81.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 81.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 76c | 79.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 24c | 78.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 21c | 76.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 22c | 64.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 22c | 64.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 62.58$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 57.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cf…e3babacked Yes | 19c | 55.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 77c | 50.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 49.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 21c | 47.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 41.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 40c | 30.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 25.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 80c | 24.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa3…1e24backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…86cabacked No | 78c | 15.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.