MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae3d51b7c3dc40a745daf9293bfaeebacc07f0c9a27f5a1b2d45629fef7eddf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,407
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,407 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Washington Nationals | 10c | 14,890$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.81 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 12,935$6,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,309.39 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 98 | 62.2%61 W · 37 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 8,075$5,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,907.85 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 7,462$2,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,692.05 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Washington Nationals | 36c | 3,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Washington Nationals | 38c | 2,574$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.22 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 1,933$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.36 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…e9cdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 67c | 1,616$1,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…1ed9backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 1,573$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 80c | 1,550$1,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.26 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 1,066$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.38 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 805.36$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.32 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 46c | 752.23$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 740$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Washington Nationals | 37c | 675$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.75 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 80c | 520$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 764 | 56%428 W · 336 L | +32.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 437.05$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Washington Nationals | 5c | 265$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7713…9c51backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 72c | 235.19$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Washington Nationals | 43c | 188.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6545…3723backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 161.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 60c | 100.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 65c | 89.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 59c | 85.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…86dabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +608.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…179dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 43.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Washington Nationals | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Washington Nationals | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…4c67backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…993dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.