Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae425c664eac050e401b9c9c33eb251cde9cd21c284e54be7601688a9fd852d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 2,184$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.95 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 24c | 895$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.72 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 74c | 871$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.15 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 856.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.35 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…5b23backed Yes | 5c | 777$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed Yes | 24c | 735.94$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb20…d0bdbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 24c | 420$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 18c | 400.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 14c | 346.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Yes | 25c | 293.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed Yes | 24c | 190.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…cf9dbacked Yes | 24c | 179.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 80c | 135$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 12c | 120.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 30c | 93.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…d166backed No | 79c | 74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 71.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 61.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 80c | 59.96$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9932…f309backed Yes | 20c | 59.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…7edfbacked Yes | 25c | 57.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f65…cdd3backed No | 75c | 44.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 51cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-02-06?Yes won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.