Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5b662d25591c91fce8d529d21ae1b0d8c43115ae2116356650de931e3a26555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 11c | 5,628$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.11 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 3,720$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.47 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 21c | 1,669$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.3 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 1,407$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 27c | 1,190$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.29 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,043$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.93 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 11c | 894.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…15fcbacked Yes | 28c | 753.93$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 19c | 690.32$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7cf6backed Yes | 10c | 453.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 26c | 381.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 26c | 380$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 67c | 368.93$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 75c | 358.07$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 12c | 334.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 305.12$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 15c | 304$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 13c | 259.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 74c | 255.82$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 74c | 232$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 75c | 226.67$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…e466backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed No | 74c | 197.3$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…8dccbacked Yes | 27c | 162.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 19c | 156.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 79c | 150$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Yes | 24c | 136.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e7…1872backed No | 74c | 135.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 110.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 26c | 88.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d81…7edfbacked Yes | 25c | 85.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -10.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 74c | 72.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x485d…fc8abacked Yes | 25c | 60.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…272dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…d3d0backed Yes | 33c | 46.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…22b6backed Yes | 26c | 44.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed No | 75c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0178…3f7abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked No | 72c | 23.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 78c | 20.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7abc…87ebbacked No | 74c | 20.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ea…e0eebacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0798…80a7backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-06?this page
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-02-06?Yes won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.