MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae6caa930f9bdb276f0f1820d0859670a028830f3c9720d4bdbf2586751c8904
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New York Metsof Miami Marlins, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Miami Marlins | 66c | 8,010$5,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,286.05 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed New York Mets | 36c | 6,560$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,199.91 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed New York Mets | 34c | 2,324$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.53 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 1,334$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.99 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,096$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed New York Mets | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed New York Mets | 34c | 988.24$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.24 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 519.84$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked New York Mets | 39c | 488.52$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 463.26$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.56 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 419$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked New York Mets | 35c | 413.77$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.9 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 383$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 61c | 249.25$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.22 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed New York Mets | 36c | 201.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed New York Mets | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed New York Mets | 34c | 116.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed New York Mets | 37c | 110.81$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Miami Marlins | 11c | 109.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Miami Marlins | 63c | 76.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed New York Mets | 35c | 61.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed New York Mets | 38c | 51.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 416 | 37.5%156 W · 260 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked New York Mets | 64c | 44.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 41c | 33.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed New York Mets | 48c | 31.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Mets | 58c | 25.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 20.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.