MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x008cd823ad13186e5017e6b635143a35283fe49f36428d95108bb378f44da998
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 52c | 16,585$8,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,705.19 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 8,946$3,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,552.56 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 7,901$3,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160.03 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 49c | 7,566$3,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,835.68 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa6…6c6cbacked Over | 54c | 5,319$2,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,854.64 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Under | 69c | 4,444$3,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,377.64 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 49c | 4,255$2,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,190.22 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 47c | 1,376$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.1 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,200$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.2 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 51c | 877.13$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.34 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 24c | 824.52$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.16 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 47c | 800$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 60c | 748.94$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.77 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 49c | 722.36$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.19 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 51c | 627.45$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 71c | 583.72$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.83 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 65c | 441.54$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 65c | 441.54$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.54 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Under | 48c | 320$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.4 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 238$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 50c | 208.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 47c | 160$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 47c | 150.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.55 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Over | 33c | 89.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 56.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 34.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…8b87backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 49c | 23.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf604…4976backed Over | 51c | 21.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.