MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab326aff829df5b7000e1f3dbf45cdb2fa0eb214192a7f5c4ecab9d690711343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 17,487$9,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,094.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 48c | 16,166$7,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,430.35 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 5,709$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.44 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 53c | 4,717$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,216.98 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 49c | 3,748$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900.96 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 72c | 1,520$1,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.54 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 38c | 1,001$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.19 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 647.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 54c | 637.42$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.67 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 38c | 562.09$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.41 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 59c | 529.9$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.25 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 439.02$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 314.56$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.76 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 48c | 215.97$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 46c | 167.57$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.25 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Under | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 46c | 107.87$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.39 | 469 | 46.3%217 W · 252 L | -25.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…d001backed Under | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Under | 53c | 80.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 74.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Over | 40c | 66.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…e4a2backed Under | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 48c | 52.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 38c | 50.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 40c | 36.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…28b8backed Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 60c | 31.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 62c | 30.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a8…14ccbacked Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 57c | 22.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Under | 54c | 18.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)New York Mets won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Mets (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.