Asian League · resolved market
Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae85bd1fbfa31212590941ad8bb226bfa80c40563e237badc88f43c3f3d4c464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,192 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 78c | 4,595$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.82 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 2,549$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,951.52 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 22c | 2,247$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.72 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.19 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 24c | 473.45$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.48 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed No | 78c | 361.53$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.98 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf232…858fbacked No | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Yes | 32c | 349.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.64 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 33c | 287.55$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.98 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 48c | 185.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 23c | 160.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.38 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 148$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.32 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 71c | 131.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed Yes | 22c | 131.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.1 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 23c | 98.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 62c | 96.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 74c | 80.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 770 | 56.2%433 W · 337 L | +40.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Yes | 48c | 65.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 28c | 55.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f8…d87fbacked Yes | 50c | 49.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 24c | 45.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 141 | 53.2%75 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 37c | 38.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 45c | 27.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed No | 77c | 24.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 934 | 46.1%431 W · 503 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Avispa Fukuoka vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?this page
- Will Avispa Fukuoka win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.