NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeb1658e24d32475d0e5b37ade5ab2f46a403ccc1067480a1fba783a0d515b40
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 60c | 5,800$3,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.6 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 1,529$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.02 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 40c | 1,340$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.79 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 40c | 875$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 42c | 861.98$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.03 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 58c | 750$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 729.89$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Under | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 40c | 348.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.47 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 40c | 337.07$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.07 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 42c | 244.43$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 40c | 237.66$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Under | 40c | 226.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.42 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 58c | 202$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.84 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 39c | 143$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…e4bcbacked Under | 41c | 58.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db0…c48ebacked Under | 42c | 50.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 59c | 40.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 58c | 34.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 58c | 31.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Under | 41c | 25.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…eb78backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 66c | 22.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 5.5this page
- Penguins vs. SenatorsPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.