NHL · resolved market
Spread: Senators (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cba786625c9f5b137b89ae244b65c287c5673cd2c0aaa22aece220adcbe6514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Senators, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Senators | 36c | 1,111$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Penguins | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Senators | 37c | 600.13$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.17 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Penguins | 66c | 391$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.35 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins | 64c | 385.96$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.36 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Penguins | 64c | 342.84$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.42 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 63c | 324.76$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.16 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Penguins | 65c | 307.04$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.04 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Senators | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Senators | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 61c | 173$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 65c | 122.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe725…2b00backed Senators | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Senators | 33c | 92.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Senators | 34c | 85.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Penguins | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Senators | 34c | 77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Senators | 34c | 74.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 125 | 36%45 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Senators | 35c | 67.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Senators | 36c | 66.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Penguins | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Senators | 36c | 65.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Senators | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Penguins | 65c | 53.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Senators | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Penguins | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Penguins | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Senators | 35c | 30.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Penguins | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Senators | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Penguins | 65c | 26.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Penguins | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Penguins | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. SenatorsPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Senators: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.