Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeb7d8d51016d054416b8fa45ab5c01fe2ec74ced0024152241fefa68743e12e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 16c | 343.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.06 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 318.38$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.83 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 7c | 291.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 278.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.26 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 75c | 181.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 180$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 161.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 140.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 131$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.76 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed Yes | 9c | 127.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 126.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 18c | 112.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 18c | 106.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 15c | 97.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 33c | 89.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 20c | 79.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 80c | 75.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 50c | 70.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0e…8337backed Yes | 32c | 62.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 32c | 62.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 34c | 52.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82eb…efe0backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 52c | 47.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 74c | 40.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 77c | 39.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…bb67backed No | 54c | 39.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9757…2dbfbacked Yes | 52c | 32.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 34c | 31.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 61c | 30.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 48c | 30.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 71c | 29.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 71c | 28.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…89a1backed No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 75c | 26.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 40c | 25.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C or higher on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.