MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaebb63eca6eda02693284feb2d9ccb715ae09ceaaf37bf5e377bb75f591429d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 6,195$3,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 49c | 4,357$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.51 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Under | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,116$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.17 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 51c | 948.93$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.46 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 34c | 744.92$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.38 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 736.8$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.51 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 51c | 516.07$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 6c | 401.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 44c | 246.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.66 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 64c | 200.25$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 51c | 184$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 137.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.51 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 51c | 132.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 131.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 44c | 129.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 308 | 34.1%105 W · 203 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 25c | 120.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 51c | 100.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 61c | 90.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 49c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 50c | 77.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Over | 39c | 76.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Under | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 51c | 74.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74c…2413backed Under | 61c | 64.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 27c | 59.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345c…b59dbacked Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 38.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 51c | 38.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 39c | 34.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under | 50c | 31.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 41c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Over | 55c | 25.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Under | 50c | 23.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.