MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2e62c6b2acdaccab0b7801f1e01a2fbe4013e4a65fb58506783656f10a99544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ab3…64afbacked Under | 52c | 31,212$16,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,230.01 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 24,261$11,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,616.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8853…c058backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,249.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…235cbacked Under | 53c | 9,208$4,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,880.47 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 4,569$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 4,205$2,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.87 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 52c | 4,088$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.58 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 53c | 3,550$1,876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,876 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 48c | 1,842$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.67 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 1,320$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.85 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…e11cbacked Over | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Over | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.06 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…26a1backed Under | 41c | 1,000$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Under | 2c | 923.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 47c | 899.99$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 883.9$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.45 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 47c | 765.61$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.14 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 702.03$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.06 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 49c | 604.65$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.33 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Over | 47c | 531$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.43 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 7c | 410$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 52c | 352.2$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.14 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 287.73$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 54c | 286.49$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 54c | 220$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.09 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 48c | 208.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.34 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 48c | 204.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 47c | 194.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 47c | 182.38$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Under | 37c | 164.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 157.01$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e87…e4e7backed Under | 53c | 145.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 54c | 143.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 49c | 129$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 122.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Under | 49c | 119.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 45c | 118.87$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 48c | 112.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 55c | 98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 49c | 94.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Under | 43c | 93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Under | 48c | 81.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 48c | 44.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 47c | 40.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 62c | 40.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Over | 49c | 38.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 49c | 31.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Over | 55c | 30.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 253 | 55.7%141 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Under | 47c | 30.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x572f…7c08backed Over | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 52c | 29.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 63c | 27.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Over | 47c | 25.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Under | 46c | 23.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 197 | 59.9%118 W · 79 L | +21.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3546…1a58backed Over | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 66c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 12.5Under won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota TwinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.