CS2 · resolved market
IEM Cologne: Astralis vs. PaiN
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaebc84d479f59f35727ea1ebae4e2ffa34c8c209427786caf71ef3cc0eec96d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astralisof Astralis, PaiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf557…18debacked Astralis | 75c | 6,486$4,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.64 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed PaiN | 15c | 4,402$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.26 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed PaiN | 49c | 4,074$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,996.41 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astralis | 66c | 3,727$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.55 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…2aaebacked Astralis | 66c | 2,653$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.62 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…831abacked PaiN | 33c | 2,540$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.22 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked PaiN | 32c | 2,321$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.75 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked PaiN | 27c | 2,092$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.04 | 116 | 31.9%37 W · 79 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Astralis | 68c | 1,652$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.91 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked PaiN | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed PaiN | 35c | 998.82$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.59 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed PaiN | 15c | 994$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.1 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Astralis | 67c | 734.66$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.44 | 89 | 56.2%50 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked PaiN | 30c | 670.48$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed PaiN | 24c | 527.94$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.62 | 132 | 23.5%31 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed PaiN | 35c | 500.03$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 446 | 48.4%216 W · 230 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed PaiN | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed PaiN | 27c | 340.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.41 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed PaiN | 14c | 333$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 85 | 4.7%4 W · 81 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Astralis | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3c…0ab0backed Astralis | 79c | 227.78$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…a361backed Astralis | 77c | 194.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed PaiN | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Astralis | 78c | 141.95$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 317 | 58%184 W · 133 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…bbcabacked PaiN | 43c | 130$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…d707backed Astralis | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked PaiN | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Astralis | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed PaiN | 26c | 57.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Astralis | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 609 | 53.4%325 W · 284 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Astralis | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.