NHL · resolved market
Senators vs. Devils: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed791753dfc79bb89be63b403e2c255e000e77923a73b20a7ca8147ab06a40b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.98 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Under | 53c | 1,820$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.7 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 49c | 1,189$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.88 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 49c | 1,139$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 586.37$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.78 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 64c | 518.94$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.56 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 66c | 501.36$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.13 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 410.12$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.36 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 37c | 239.79$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 32c | 219$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 66c | 125.91$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Over | 70c | 125.81$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +5.5wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 20c | 114$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 53c | 86.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.09 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Over | 50c | 85.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 53c | 84.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 32c | 84.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 60c | 80.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 46c | 78.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 61c | 73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 59.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 73c | 59.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 40c | 50.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 53c | 48.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 46.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Under | 52c | 42.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Over | 51c | 38.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 38.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 36.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 45c | 35.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Under | 55c | 32.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 32.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 54c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 51c | 31.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Over | 45c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a01…2e3dbacked Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7988…a57ebacked Under | 54c | 19.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senators vs. Devils: O/U 6.5this page
- Senators vs. DevilsDevils won
- Senators vs. Devils: O/U 4.5Over won
- Senators vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Over won
- Senators vs. Devils: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Senators won
- Spread: Senators (-1.5)Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.