MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaee7b0a81dd4eb9631b1553861b4d83ab024c23cf3b5cf4a0832b0ff5e731317
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 9,983$5,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,353.06 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 3,725$1,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,048.59 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 37c | 2,218$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.53 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 1c | 1,309$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 35c | 1,210$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.41 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 37c | 1,048$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.39 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 37c | 513.68$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.82 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 39c | 456.5$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Over | 73c | 255.9$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 6c | 246.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 37c | 221.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 63c | 120.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.57 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 37c | 116$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 37c | 110.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 37c | 110.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 62.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 34c | 40.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 38c | 26.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 57c | 23.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 66c | 20.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.