MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1424af4eb3bbda21d9eaf36a8f2daf1fa06ebdc195abc7cd084a3aa21b841210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Athletics, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 2,703$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 42c | 2,061$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.63 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 61c | 583.11$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.42 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 502$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Athletics | 37c | 261.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Athletics | 31c | 245.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 237.3$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.38 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 60c | 222.73$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Athletics | 34c | 185.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Athletics | 44c | 143.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 38c | 125.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 116.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Athletics | 18c | 112.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Athletics | 45c | 109$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 61c | 99.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 97.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 90.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 292 | 51%149 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 44c | 86.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 78.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 69c | 74.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Athletics | 30c | 73.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Athletics | 36c | 64.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Athletics | 33c | 59.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Athletics | 23c | 56.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 55.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 50.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 25.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.