TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,459 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Under60c22,580$13,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,089.7411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe55a…ecf7backed Under54c22,252$12,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,216.663946.2%18 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over40c21,239$8,517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,516.7210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over44c15,624$6,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,874.6246949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under60c8,269$4,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,280.44,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over46c5,667$2,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6076,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over30c4,234$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,254.522,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Under57c3,000$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29048952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Over44c2,855$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.4764452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under56c2,141$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.286,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Over47c2,121$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.111,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over45c2,067$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.072,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over37c1,696$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.11,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under46c1,662$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.484,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1237…e11cbacked Under57c1,413$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.913834.2%13 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-33.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xec95…a2dcbacked Over45c1,407$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.225451.9%28 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd58d…c2d6backed Under57c1,401$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.5515149.7%75 W · 76 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Over46c1,377$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2373949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed Over46c1,377$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2379255.6%440 W · 352 L+20.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Over44c1,220$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.8456253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Over46c1,054$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.763,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under55c916.36$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.3636048.6%175 W · 185 L-11.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba62…3e29backed Under56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8622149.3%109 W · 112 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over38c879.1$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.788,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over44c800$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35227249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Over46c799.76$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.891,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05c5…6a69backed Under46c787.47$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.2347358.4%276 W · 197 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked Over44c700$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30828753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked Over44c700$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30827952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d23…251cbacked Over46c632.22$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8211751.3%60 W · 57 L+0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over45c618$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.91,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2185…b40cbacked Over45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27026255.7%146 W · 116 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under56c585$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.41,55548.9%761 W · 794 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Over46c577.23$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.7556851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a64…683ebacked Over45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2258045%36 W · 44 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x225b…9a83backed Under70c486.9$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.077237.5%27 W · 45 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Under54c460$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.686653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over44c445.58$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.78,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Over45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011041.8%46 W · 64 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e7a…f252backed Over46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a09…ab7ebacked Under46c386.67$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.810252%53 W · 49 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1541,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under56c293$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.921,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Over46c283.35$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3440447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under46c271.3$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.51,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Over46c218.95$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.723,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under56c199.99$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.445252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over36c191.89$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over44c183.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.469,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under55c183$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.351,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Over44c182.68$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5210351.5%53 W · 50 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Under57c158$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.946852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Over40c152.03$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3448751.5%251 W · 236 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Over45c150$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.599447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under46c140.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.971,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Over38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over44c106.23$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7487750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under56c101.42$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.634,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4454146.8%253 W · 288 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ede…23e5backed Over44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Under56c96.92$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.9129350.9%149 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Over44c91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0435650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked Under52c90.44$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.622949.8%114 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2077…8161backed Over46c87.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1334255.3%189 W · 153 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under56c86.25$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.952,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over34c84$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5655645.3%252 W · 304 L-17.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Over44c82.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.279955.9%447 W · 352 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Under55c77.45$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7295850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over28c75.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.148,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under46c70.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9840658.4%237 W · 169 L+2.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Under46c70.33$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9855259.6%329 W · 223 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Over44c68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9224749%121 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Over35c64.04$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4147056.6%266 W · 204 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over35c64.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4173355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b2…79ddbacked Over46c61.11$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.414257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Over39c58.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6153655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over34c56.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1342451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Under60c53.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.481,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe182…a6e2backed Over48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Under55c45.9$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8856435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Under56c44.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6247652.9%252 W · 224 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x833c…ac24backed Under56c44.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.629549.5%47 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237f…362ebacked Under57c42.74$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.388746%40 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Over38c39.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1546255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x186b…9bbabacked Over46c38.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.563444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over46c38.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5284049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under54c38.08$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5211852.5%62 W · 56 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over45c37.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.773,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over35c36.89$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9115052.7%79 W · 71 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Over44c36.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.130554.4%166 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Under55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3694549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Over43c31.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4761352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over49c30.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.661,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Under56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.234846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over43c28.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Over46c28.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.031,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Under55c27.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2715953.5%85 W · 74 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked Under56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7913666.2%90 W · 46 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x472e…f338backed Over45c26.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over47c25.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.962,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.