MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4d77e70b01d24faad4cbd46b7f4ff2b945948c733e1f9453323eff92547d420f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 47c | 17,246$8,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,065.23 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 7,875$3,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,469.06 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 5,680$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,501.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 2,309$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 44c | 2,184$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.85 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 1,982$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.82 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 45c | 1,931$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.92 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 63c | 1,543$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x225b…9a83backed Under | 45c | 1,133$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.08 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 782.99$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.36 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 57c | 774.6$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.08 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 723.77$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…f595backed Over | 55c | 480$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 56c | 400$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 44c | 322.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 44c | 309.62$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 44c | 304.54$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 56c | 273.97$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.55 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 28c | 233$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.76 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 62c | 227$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.86 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 199.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 79c | 187.45$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 153.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 59c | 147.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Over | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 51c | 124.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…0facbacked Under | 78c | 115$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 125 | 75.2%94 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 61c | 114.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd304…3ed2backed Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 61c | 93.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 56c | 87.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 63c | 75.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 63c | 75.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 61c | 73.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 62c | 70.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 61c | 62.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…f3c5backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Over | 62c | 45.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…4ac7backed Over | 57c | 43.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 34c | 41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…9fc9backed Under | 43c | 38.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 54c | 38.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0a…b267backed Under | 63c | 34.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 44c | 31.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 56c | 29.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Over | 49c | 29.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 45c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 45c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 59c | 27.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 59c | 27.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 62c | 26.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Under | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…2775backed Over | 61c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 61c | 19.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.