Us Politics · resolved market
Elon Musk trillionaire in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf11eaf31826a155b5aa4d28fafcebfd641ed153210d547fb431b7797ef30d0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $333,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $357,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $333,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 3c | 13,277$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 12,516$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 4c | 10,663$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.36 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 10c | 10,057$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.56 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d6…e3edbacked Yes | 1c | 8,483$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…2183backed Yes | 3c | 6,671$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…a6c1backed Yes | 9c | 5,806$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.56 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b473backed Yes | 11c | 4,286$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,021$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…cbe7backed Yes | 3c | 3,764$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…2e5bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,345$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…f05fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,755$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 5c | 1,630$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…6b39backed Yes | 7c | 1,449$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde5b…9e50backed Yes | 8c | 1,237$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 1,197$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06cb…a350backed Yes | 3c | 1,119$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,090$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe746…ff6abacked Yes | 12c | 1,075$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…0bd0backed Yes | 2c | 1,031$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…554fbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c4…6725backed Yes | 2c | 952.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 920$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10c3…db1dbacked Yes | 4c | 913.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…d678backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 2c | 827.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9d…a3c8backed Yes | 4c | 771.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb796…58a8backed Yes | 3c | 744.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…b69dbacked Yes | 3c | 671.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 12c | 654$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe73d…7e55backed Yes | 3c | 652.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x383d…a9f2backed Yes | 7c | 635.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 5c | 592.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 578.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…c296backed Yes | 7c | 571.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5adb…851abacked Yes | 4c | 530.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…141bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 5c | 499.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…91d2backed Yes | 3c | 485.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37a…509bbacked Yes | 3c | 470$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96bb…6eadbacked Yes | 3c | 446.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…31bcbacked Yes | 3c | 380$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9f…e9e5backed Yes | 6c | 263$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 16cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 9c | 253.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d5…fbe0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e99…18d0backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 8c | 175.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…81ddbacked Yes | 10c | 152.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 136.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8e…794abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db1…1eeabacked Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 10c | 117.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…e44fbacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…03e7backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6855…0cc5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7a…c8e1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c23…b6a1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -81%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa008…9bc1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +29%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.