Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf12588ebcd9e41185192eb1dda6b8de6e4dc8e30cc89101def34c593607ffad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 527.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 214.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 204.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 188.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 165.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 161.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 24c | 156.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 80c | 136.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked Yes | 20c | 134$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 102.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 18c | 93.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 91.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 25c | 80.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 27c | 74.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 73c | 68.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 26c | 56.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed No | 78c | 53.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 77c | 52.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 27c | 44.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 79c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 77c | 19.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c843backed No | 76c | 19.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.