Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7f3793698c6289c109861f2acb9f06e6f13a661835d8cd9b8a946cc3ac3bdb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 22c | 719.45$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 262.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 26c | 253$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 23c | 246.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 30c | 236.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.14 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 25c | 210.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.23 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 200.15$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 185.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 182.47$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 73c | 151.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 14c | 138.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.67 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 14c | 137.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.48 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 20c | 134.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 127.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 80c | 110.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.98 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 25c | 105.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.96 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 62c | 101.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 100.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 70c | 87.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 84.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 12c | 81.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 77.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 77.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 21c | 73.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…be1dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4876…22e2backed Yes | 49c | 60.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 60.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 64c | 55.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 30c | 50.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 49.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 34c | 47.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 26c | 47.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 43.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 40.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 80c | 40.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 32.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 30.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 45c | 29.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 25.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 59c | 24.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66d3…7badbacked No | 75c | 22.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 21.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…13babacked Yes | 50c | 20.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 78c | 19.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 18.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 73c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 58c | 18.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 69c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 16.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.