Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb171fb40bfd88619d1de3c3cf6c0c517f522c9606edd90bf21848aaaa61779b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 14c | 703.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 429.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 18c | 199.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 191.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 63c | 167.58$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 40c | 159$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 33c | 155.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 151.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 31c | 130.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 127.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 58c | 122.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 117.21$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 67c | 113.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 66c | 113.29$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 17c | 103.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 99.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 96.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…c1a5backed No | 64c | 93.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 31c | 84.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 78.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 63c | 75.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 65c | 74.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…8dcbbacked Yes | 42c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 69.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 66.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 55.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 38c | 49.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked No | 62c | 46.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 72c | 46.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 23c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba9…9c5bbacked Yes | 35c | 39.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | -10.9wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 39c | 33.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 31.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 36c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 65c | 29.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 41c | 29.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 38c | 28.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 27.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 39c | 25.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 25.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 24.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 43c | 24.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 62c | 24.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…3ca9backed No | 66c | 22.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 64c | 20.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 57c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 19.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 76c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 68c | 19.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 67c | 16.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 15.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 81°F or below on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.