Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf17af436ceb789a134437883fdfa727b2af110b6c603f1b6e1dc5e2c0dd9168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,482$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.5 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 894.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 14c | 694.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 690.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 658.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 21c | 531.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 8c | 527.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 3c | 449.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 13c | 431.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 348.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 5c | 308.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked Yes | 3c | 292.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0043…dadebacked Yes | 5c | 277.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 17c | 256.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7936…2ccbbacked Yes | 4c | 235.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 11c | 221$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 80c | 164.54$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 155.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 20c | 100.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 27c | 93.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 18c | 89.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 87.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…3a2abacked Yes | 29c | 85.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 56.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes | 30c | 50.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 25.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.