Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb123a35ce5ccc665d7cd0e7c9bddd6c89182e19d5abacc9485e4f7c5c4aa8d5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,484 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 13c | 942.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.52 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 840.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 14c | 780.14$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.38 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 571.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 468.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 13c | 423.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 9c | 396.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 10c | 385.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 11c | 376.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 11c | 364.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 280.55$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 38c | 266.09$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 12c | 229.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 18c | 226.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 35c | 221.02$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.22 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 204.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 21c | 200.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 9c | 181$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 39c | 160$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 159.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 74c | 156.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 24c | 152.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 152.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 151.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes | 40c | 150.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2398…17d7backed Yes | 39c | 146$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 19c | 142.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 142.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 137$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 132.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 44c | 125.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 125.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 34c | 112.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked No | 75c | 112.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 20c | 110.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…b118backed Yes | 14c | 104.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 13c | 99.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 15c | 86.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 16c | 85.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 47c | 82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 25c | 77.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 53c | 76.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 14c | 76.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 72.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 18c | 55.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…3a2abacked Yes | 43c | 53.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 69c | 46.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 38c | 33.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 31c | 33.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 73c | 27.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 58c | 27.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 26.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed Yes | 56c | 23.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 52cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 64c | 23.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 53c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 75c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 74c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 71c | 16.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.