Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98bbfe4e8fa277f983269de65a05d33ddabcd2e0a6527b2f1c2ce61b78ae111c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,548 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfed5…389cbacked Yes | 30c | 2,705$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aad…d52dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,622$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c5…0b0ebacked No | 70c | 1,376$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aef…f469backed No | 70c | 1,329$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece9…4088backed No | 71c | 1,327$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4716…24a0backed No | 71c | 1,295$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 583.96$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 567.04$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 8c | 549.86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 12c | 500.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 472.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 6c | 424.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 16c | 379.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.08 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 329.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 16c | 274.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 7c | 245.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 16c | 229.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 8c | 208.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 15c | 208.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…678bbacked Yes | 39c | 201.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 35c | 197.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 9c | 192.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 17c | 181$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 180.77$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 180$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 67c | 157.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 156.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 35c | 153.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.85 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 75c | 141.36$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 137$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 134.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 20c | 124.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 122.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 121.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…1e09backed Yes | 24c | 113$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 21c | 112.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 112$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 18c | 111.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6646backed Yes | 21c | 111.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 23c | 110.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 15c | 106.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 105.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…e044backed Yes | 39c | 103.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 28c | 101.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 17c | 99.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 79c | 96.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 93.7$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 20c | 92.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 60c | 89.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e6…c602backed Yes | 13c | 89.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 85.17$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 37c | 82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 79.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 38c | 77.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 76.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…b118backed Yes | 23c | 66.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 26c | 63.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 29c | 50.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 77c | 47.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…d255backed Yes | 25c | 47.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…dfc4backed No | 76c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23f…e90bbacked No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 72c | 41.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ab…8688backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e8…8131backed No | 77c | 22.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5622…29dfbacked No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 78c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 20.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 74c | 17.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.