Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fa82fac16f0d2798ee1efaaad62a6b0e94b90067adedbdcfce52a1dd419455b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,919 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 64c | 1,933$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.37 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 18c | 791.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.58 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 668.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.67 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 658.77$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 11c | 644.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.37 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 540.5$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.58 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 429.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 419.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.27 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 374.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91db…e10abacked No | 14c | 355.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 10c | 329.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.8 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 10c | 310.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.25 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 293.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 289$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 253.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.17 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 11c | 229.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.54 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 6c | 227.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.72 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 11c | 224.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.02 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 20c | 221.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.03 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 34c | 205.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…d0cebacked Yes | 12c | 203.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 77c | 194.17$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 15c | 171.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked Yes | 7c | 166.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 70c | 154.52$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa16a…57d5backed Yes | 26c | 151.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.46 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…e044backed Yes | 13c | 150.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 145.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 7c | 143.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 23c | 141.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 137.07$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13e…1223backed Yes | 69c | 130.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked Yes | 8c | 127.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.41 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 26c | 116.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 12c | 115.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.82 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 52c | 114.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.84 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 16c | 100.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 11c | 89.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 58c | 86.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 80.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 67c | 79.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 18c | 78.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 38c | 73.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 25c | 72.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 57c | 71.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 70c | 71.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 65c | 63.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 58c | 59.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 20c | 56.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes | 57c | 53.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 51.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 22c | 47.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 39c | 40.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 53c | 37.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 35.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 33.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 30.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 68c | 29.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…ab4cbacked Yes | 67c | 27.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…80edbacked Yes | 76c | 26.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 25.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce7…56d3backed Yes | 75c | 24.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked Yes | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 59c | 21.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…73d9backed No | 77c | 19.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 80c | 18.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 80c | 15.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 75c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 74c | 13.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C or higher on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C or below on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 6°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.