Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf319253b6c70535da9c94f5ab23ac14336fbe7263778c76a7a4e6bbabbeb96d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 7c | 1,194$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.38 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 6c | 627.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 6c | 579.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 7c | 506.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 418.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 409.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 303.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 253.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 5c | 251.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 245.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 12c | 177.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 170.07$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 6c | 169.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 164.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…ecddbacked Yes | 23c | 133.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 11c | 122.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 104.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 95.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1049…8cc3backed No | 76c | 84.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 77.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 73.83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…65a3backed Yes | 20c | 71.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 72c | 69.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 61c | 64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 67c | 61.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 60.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 58.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 31c | 57.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 22c | 55.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…5d9bbacked Yes | 26c | 52.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 66c | 51.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 49.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 40.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 38.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 34.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 77c | 31.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 79c | 31.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 28.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 70c | 21.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 70c | 21.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 66c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 72c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 17.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 79c | 13.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.