Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb773eb26a0f8ce045e9bacfcb84b26075344e30923569277254d0b07f88e479b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,393$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,334$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 45c | 1,099$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.12 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 753$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 632.96$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.39 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 58c | 520.52$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 487.79$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.32 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 40c | 481.25$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 53c | 478.7$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.24 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 448.81$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 43c | 424.38$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.9 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 67c | 411.2$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.84 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 360.56$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 62c | 318.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.67 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 52c | 317.94$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.29 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 34c | 277.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.83 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 73c | 273$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.29 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 259.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00eb…313cbacked Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 11cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 53c | 233.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 233.09$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 30c | 222.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 26c | 221.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 198.53$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 182$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 174.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66f4…6ad5backed Yes | 48c | 167.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -6.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 60c | 163.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 50c | 162.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 61c | 162.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 51c | 162.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 55c | 155.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 148.32$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 130.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 44c | 130$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 49c | 122.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 27c | 113.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 109$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 43c | 107.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.75 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 102.67$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 11c | 96.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 53c | 93.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 43c | 87.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 49c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 63c | 86.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 41c | 85.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 53c | 84.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 80.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.61 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 52c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 53c | 79.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed No | 26c | 77.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.49 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 56c | 75.14$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 46c | 73.09$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5f…a191backed No | 49c | 71.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 78c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 69.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 68.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 55c | 68.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 50c | 62.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 42c | 62.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f8…c527backed No | 33c | 59.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 58.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 63c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 56.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 52c | 55.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…023abacked No | 71c | 53.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 69c | 53.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03f…67a1backed No | 33c | 49.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 31c | 49.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 47c | 49.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 47.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…89b7backed Yes | 64c | 46.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 43.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 43.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 53c | 42.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 42.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 41c | 41.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 50c | 41.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc3…03f8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 57c | 38.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 63c | 38.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 38.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 47c | 37.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 37.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 73c | 35.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed No | 45c | 35.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d02…8c5dbacked Yes | 52c | 35.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 73c | 34.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…846bbacked No | 40c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +151.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 31.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 31.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.