Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28a55ac0328007ab4032adf6d3cd31f749ddfd72c0a2fd0f95d8ed7a2185736e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 1,098$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed No | 9c | 958.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 858.82$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 683.66$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.61 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 56c | 491.74$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.21 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 42c | 442.37$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.27 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 11c | 439.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 398$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 64c | 384$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.18 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 379.62$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.31 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 57c | 372.32$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 306.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 56c | 253.2$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 240.91$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.26 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 29c | 205.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.77 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb22…8186backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 175.66$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 21c | 167.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 164.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 30c | 156.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.06 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 148.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.01 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 129.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 129.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 64c | 127.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.38 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 120.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 41c | 110.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 106.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed Yes | 31c | 97.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 23c | 96.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…864cbacked Yes | 39c | 95.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 64c | 94.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.71 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 56c | 87.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.61 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 31c | 86.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 86.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 47c | 84.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 61c | 82.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 80.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 33c | 73.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…b88ebacked Yes | 23c | 72.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 66c | 71.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 24c | 71.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 45c | 71.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 69.3$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 67.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 61c | 64.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 64.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 65c | 64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 63.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 63.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 65c | 62.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 59.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 59.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 77c | 57.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 47c | 53.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 63c | 51.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 49.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 48.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 47.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 41c | 47.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 44.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 44.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 46c | 44.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 33c | 42.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 48c | 41.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 41.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 40.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 38.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 30c | 38.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 30c | 37.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 57c | 36.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 36.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 71c | 33.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 32.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…5d00backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 28.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 62c | 21.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 21.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 56c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…63f5backed No | 65c | 17.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f7…4984backed No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…f657backed No | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 16.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.