South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Rosario Central vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf475704b4253ca0787c6961113c431d93a9e2b2f05c9268138003463a59ad6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 3,603$2,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.11 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 1,968$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.84 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 41c | 1,038$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.4 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 70c | 248.44$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.95 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 56c | 245.3$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.02 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 24c | 242.01$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 30c | 210.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.37 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 27c | 205$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 109 | 22%24 W · 85 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 196.11$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.94 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2569…5d2dbacked Under | 53c | 183.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 36c | 120.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…7857backed Over | 75c | 110.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 61c | 105.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 46c | 92.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 44c | 72.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Over | 48c | 70.92$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 59c | 66.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 258 | 64.3%166 W · 92 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Under | 37c | 65.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 43c | 58.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 406 | 51%207 W · 199 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Over | 74c | 49.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 23c | 45.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 77c | 44.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 47c | 42.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed Over | 67c | 40.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Over | 73c | 40.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 31c | 36.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cf…0425backed Over | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf824…651fbacked Over | 77c | 30.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…9e73backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…9150backed Over | 66c | 29.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 71c | 29.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 36c | 29.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 74c | 26.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…1be5backed Over | 78c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Sarmiento: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 2.5Over won
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Rosario Central vs. CA Sarmiento: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-1.5)CA Sarmiento won
- Spread: CA Rosario Central (-2.5)CA Sarmiento won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.