World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf530d63d6d68c7b280c52108ebb8cd4860d58f0ca38ffba5cda2b189f673079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 865$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.63 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 589.96$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 422.44$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.78 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed Yes | 74c | 276.13$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 50c | 259.98$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 80c | 225$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…8333backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +555%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 199.79$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 56c | 196$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 176$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.56 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 51c | 153.14$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 10c | 133.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 110.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 107$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 100.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 46c | 99.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…2550backed Yes | 80c | 93.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 87.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13a…5469backed Yes | 80c | 82.5$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 52c | 53.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.43 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 49c | 44.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 55c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 79c | 37.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 40c | 37.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 79c | 31.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 78c | 25.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…a5c7backed No | 52c | 24.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -10.7wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 80c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ff…ee99backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.