NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf61508f5691688df125d15ffdc143d5d80ec6b19b2d516f205837ff2016c8ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 53c | 8,864$4,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,675.61 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 7,337$3,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,897.39 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 52c | 5,112$2,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.21 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 52c | 3,619$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.96 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 1,977$968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.19 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 48c | 1,113$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.73 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 48c | 1,021$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.92 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 47c | 832$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.73 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Under | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcad…c851backed Under | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Over | 48c | 160.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.37 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Over | 49c | 137.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Over | 51c | 136.48$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.37 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 243 | 52.7%128 W · 115 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 53c | 120$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f8…bed5backed Under | 53c | 115.38$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Over | 48c | 95.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9da3…a7efbacked Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 86$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 46c | 86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 114 | 58.8%67 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 47c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 488 | 47.5%232 W · 256 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 47c | 55.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…6197backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 48c | 50.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Under | 53c | 30.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 163 | 60.1%98 W · 65 L | +16.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Cardinals: O/U 47.5this page
- Jaguars vs. CardinalsJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Cardinals: 1H MoneylineCardinals won
- Jaguars vs. Cardinals: O/U 45.5Over won
- Spread: Jaguars (-1.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-2.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.