Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf7fb55d99d0fec2464951ba326b9a017e23d95613fa6cb7acdb319f7523c1c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.84 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 585.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.4 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 8c | 464.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 458.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 22c | 348.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 16c | 127.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 11c | 108.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 18c | 108$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 26c | 101.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked Yes | 17c | 100.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…cf15backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 79c | 95.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 24c | 91.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 12c | 87.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 18c | 85.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6b3fbacked Yes | 17c | 79.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 76.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 71.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 21c | 64.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 19c | 61.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 22c | 61.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 60.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 25c | 45.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 74c | 40.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 35.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 67c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 24.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa46…4a23backed No | 70c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 66c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 14.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.