Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf809f2252d4d743a2ed1a0325682f75e8db00e8ba9dde8cf78fd7b87897acfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 43c | 926.19$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.16 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 2c | 684.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 309.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 7c | 214.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 36c | 209.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 194.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 19c | 154.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 64c | 145.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.05 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 133.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 128.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 124.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 31c | 114.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 108.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 20c | 104.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 45c | 103$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 19c | 100.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ff…b951backed Yes | 22c | 98.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 76c | 97.19$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 95.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 25c | 85.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 51c | 84.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…b8c4backed Yes | 23c | 75.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 26c | 73.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 68.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 57.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 50.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 30c | 42.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 38c | 27.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 26.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 60c | 23.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 45c | 22.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…bf19backed No | 80c | 17.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.22per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.