Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Arizona Wildcats
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf83c07ee865fc104a4d9fb6230a7f131ccfb1f5412d0f657e471099fe048640
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Wildcatsof Arizona State Sun Devils, Arizona Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 7c | 5,447$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.13 | 397 | 44.8%178 W · 219 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 5c | 4,664$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.7 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 7c | 3,850$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.5 | 105 | 11.4%12 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 17c | 2,467$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.14 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 2,048$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 149 | 25.5%38 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 11c | 1,635$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.82 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9121…bd6cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 13c | 1,518$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.1 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 1c | 1,430$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 7c | 834.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 3c | 763.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 290 | 12.1%35 W · 255 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 12c | 687.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…6b4cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 6c | 667.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 230 | 28.3%65 W · 165 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…f7a7backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 5c | 464.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 7c | 368.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 365 | 35.9%131 W · 234 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 3c | 365.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…361bbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 6c | 307.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 98 | 21.4%21 W · 77 L | -17.7wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 11c | 306.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 369 | 42.3%156 W · 213 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 14c | 266.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…c966backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 4c | 249.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 8c | 229.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 7c | 227.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee28…8266backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 6c | 221.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 164 | 36%59 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -12.0wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…9719backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 12c | 167.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x600b…3695backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 139.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…a27cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…07f3backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 12c | 98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Arizona Wildcatsthis page
- Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 167.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-21.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-22.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.