Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafed5b0888fce5fd46fc9fc88ac6fdd78164f2b32687e8f9d5a26e949bdad5a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 56c | 943.57$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.76 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 4c | 508.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 12c | 267.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 33c | 230.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 47c | 224.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 30c | 204.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 40c | 176.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 169.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 71c | 168.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 31c | 167.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 16c | 131.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 129.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…2c8bbacked Yes | 74c | 128.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 30c | 125.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 79c | 111.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 42c | 109.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.49 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 30c | 99.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 58c | 93.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 35c | 84.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 37c | 84.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 40c | 82.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 72c | 68.12$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 63.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 70c | 54.23$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 49c | 51.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 61c | 50.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59dd…7cffbacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 52c | 47.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 32c | 46.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 49c | 45.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 43c | 44.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…69f5backed Yes | 64c | 42.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +311.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 60c | 40.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 53c | 39.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 36c | 37.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 60c | 33.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed No | 48c | 32.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 70c | 31.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 46c | 29.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 39c | 28.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 26.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 57c | 25.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…6c35backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 78c | 16.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.