Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb01997db2863000ffd4b1bad4e9b9992d834464cf7420915b6944c082e288d92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 31c | 499.96$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.92 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 241.11$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 17c | 159.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 139.76$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 137.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 125.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 115.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 13c | 108.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 70.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 69c | 58.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9210…70a4backed Yes | 26c | 49.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 48.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 25c | 47.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 32c | 36.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 27.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 27.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 24.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 75c | 22.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 69c | 21.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 79c | 21.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 68c | 15.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 79c | 13.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.