TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,636
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,636 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes16c851.19$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.558,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c631.29$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.914,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes35c627.43$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.3210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No71c549$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.154,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes39c514.21$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8639427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c459.73$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.065,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No71c405.78$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.662,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes40c375.25$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes50c355.61$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0625135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No72c314.62$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.324,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No63c278.69$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.991,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes27c267.17$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.587729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes15c261.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1742820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes41c255.22$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.5595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes13c249.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.43,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No69c246$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.285,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes10c210.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.382,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No73c200.54$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.553,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c188.41$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.5712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7adc…a971backed Yes41c177.59$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8115040%60 W · 90 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes34c172$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0163143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No76c167.14$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.134,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No65c161.43$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.753,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes27c160.92$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5156322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes26c158.43$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8534533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes41c155.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.51,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No73c151.09$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.172,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No54c148.33$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.654,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No59c147$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.84,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes16c146.06$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.241,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No73c142.89$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.042,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No76c139.75$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.256,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4453…fc75backed Yes16c139.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.196527.7%18 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+68.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c138.58$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.073,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No53c136.22$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.52,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c2…a675backed Yes48c133.53$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.25812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.28per pick40cpaid-72.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No72c133.43$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.752,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1201…005bbacked Yes10c125.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.951679.6%16 W · 151 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c125.5$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed No59c125.06$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7919737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4941…a2bebacked Yes43c123.26$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4812450.8%63 W · 61 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No79c123.07$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.332,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No69c107.33$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.22,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No59c106.44$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.292,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c103.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.639,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No75c102.23$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.613,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes21c101.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1615630.8%48 W · 108 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No60c100.81$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…c64fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc865…7477backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4017633.5%59 W · 117 L-34.2wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4127248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1316733.5%56 W · 111 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes36c99.54$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1116532.1%53 W · 112 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-19.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No60c89.72$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8860054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes45c84.8$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed Yes36c84.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.251,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes27c82.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2525839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No73c81.87$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.242,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes30c81.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.611,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81e9…8e07backed No44c80.18$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6520250.5%102 W · 100 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No45c79.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9831649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes33c79.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.242,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes54c76.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417540%30 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc14b…a589backed No78c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.54362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No69c74.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.92,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No59c74.08$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7283459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No59c73.84$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61b9…07dfbacked No49c73.69$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4810447.1%49 W · 55 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes69c72.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506927.5%19 W · 50 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+16.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No67c72.17$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.054,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes20c70.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.984124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No69c69.75$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.582,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No69c64.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.031,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…5f93backed Yes37c63.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.314621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes46c62.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5640337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2a3…b889backed Yes50c61.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b6…402ebacked Yes53c59.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.991952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes44c59.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1456048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…63e1backed Yes72c58.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.452846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No61c58.79$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.961,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No57c55.47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.043,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes52c55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.63540%14 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No76c52.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3271057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No29c52.21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.221,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No57c50.66$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.672,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes55c50.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.52,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c2…8210backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.254154%292 W · 249 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.560550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6986…5585backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.59852%51 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d48…3fdfbacked No66c49.57$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.851675%12 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+45.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c49.13$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.543,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b5…c988backed Yes52c46.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.253630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No50c45.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.8791861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes52c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.419541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c44.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.437,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No62c44.37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.681,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2388…5a3ebacked Yes46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.32per pick40cpaid-78.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x69f5…6d8dbacked Yes52c40.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2160%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.73,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.061,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.