Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x550bdea3210ce538048434832d502c9baf6629d2b95ceaf52875266951ee1ee0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 1,951$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,768.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 75c | 1,857$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.52 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 24c | 616.56$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.01 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 547.91$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.35 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 32c | 538.25$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.41 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 39c | 460.52$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.22 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 401.41$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.73 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 7c | 382.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 357.6$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 9c | 291.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.29 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 15c | 289.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.38 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 289.36$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…11cdbacked Yes | 36c | 272.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.92 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 256.42$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 70c | 250.17$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.94 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 248.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.4 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 10c | 234.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.83 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 227$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.53 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 24c | 221.73$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.13 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 27c | 214.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 24c | 202.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes | 30c | 202.05$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.05 | 149 | 32.9%49 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 50c | 187.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 181.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 56c | 180.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 20c | 179.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…0948backed Yes | 21c | 175.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.47 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 32c | 168.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.44 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 153$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 143.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.77 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 12c | 139.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 73c | 137.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 130$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 28c | 128.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…5f93backed Yes | 25c | 128.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 39c | 126.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 123.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.05 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 119.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 117.38$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 60c | 114.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 42c | 112.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89f4…6950backed Yes | 25c | 105.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9281…60febacked Yes | 56c | 104.17$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.13 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 102$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…0e4dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 51c | 98.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…8e07backed No | 39c | 97.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 202 | 50.5%102 W · 100 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 70c | 96.87$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.74 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 24c | 94.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…63e1backed Yes | 38c | 91.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 44c | 87.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 35c | 86.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 56c | 85.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 43c | 84.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 67c | 84.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.27 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 83.97$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 57c | 83.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 19c | 80.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 80.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 33c | 78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 44c | 76.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 76.62$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 73c | 76.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 24c | 72.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 27c | 64.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 63.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed Yes | 51c | 58.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…2c70backed Yes | 21c | 57.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 30c | 56.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 41c | 55.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 55.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 34c | 54.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc295…c520backed Yes | 55c | 54.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 52.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 50.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…f4fcbacked Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e2…a783backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 22c | 49.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c56…6e66backed No | 73c | 47.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b5…c988backed Yes | 22c | 46.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 50c | 45.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 45c | 44.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5a3ebacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 78c | 38.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…259dbacked Yes | 66c | 38.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 43c | 37.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 48c | 35.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 33.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7107backed Yes | 80c | 31.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 27.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on July 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.