MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb01f8fc29238822e494572cec9e1d01bbc4838d58a5bf448e7eafa76227f4df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 4,845$3,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,722.24 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Chicago Cubs | 35c | 3,092$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 2,264$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.17 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Chicago Cubs | 12c | 1,122$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 991.93$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.69 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Chicago Cubs | 36c | 921$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.74 | 161 | 32.3%52 W · 109 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 746.07$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 589.5$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Chicago Cubs | 10c | 473$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 299.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 132.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Chicago Cubs | 27c | 131.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 126.91$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 118.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 81.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 81.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 78.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 70.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Chicago Cubs | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 38.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 36.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 36.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 33.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf39…9ec7backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 27.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 23.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 20.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 17.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland GuardiansChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.