MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccccff424ce7dcca6829edfc8ffdb3cee4ebb6c3c11757ea5e017052e00a4746
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 31c | 9,988$3,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,073.38 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 71c | 1,987$1,406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.29 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 67c | 1,955$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.05 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 70c | 1,344$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.89 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 999.72$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 23c | 920.15$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Under | 73c | 918.83$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.73 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 77c | 891.9$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed Under | 67c | 882$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.54 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +237.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 69c | 841.49$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 18c | 829.74$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.59 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 68c | 640.46$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.95 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…61fdbacked Over | 30c | 236.31$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 60c | 191.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 69c | 130.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 75c | 111.91$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ff…8d60backed Under | 69c | 104.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd023…fa38backed Over | 27c | 86.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 42c | 85.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 65c | 81.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…06d0backed Under | 69c | 77.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 39c | 69.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 59c | 69.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 71c | 67.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 65c | 67.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 68c | 47.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 68c | 47.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 71c | 45.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…fbedbacked Under | 65c | 44.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 65c | 39.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 69c | 37.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 72c | 35.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 71c | 24.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaed…5749backed Under | 72c | 22.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda0…edaabacked Under | 69c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland GuardiansChicago Cubs won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 1.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 2.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.